In 1918, a lethal flu pandemic killed some 50 million people worldwide. Today experts say that bird flu could become one of the deadliest diseases in the history of mankind.
Bird flu has killed more than 110 people since late 2003. The highest number of deaths happened in Vietnam (42), Indonesia (24), Thailand (14) and China (12).
In Southeast Asia the virus spreads among birds principally in crowded, unsanitary live poultry markets. Avian influenza has spread from Southeast Asia to Europe and Africa.
When the virus spread to Europe in 2005 there were reports that European demand for chicken meat and eggs fell by over 30%. The first case of deadly flu virus H5N1 in Africa surfaced in April 2006, likely caused by imports of live chicks from China into Nigeria.
A full-blown pandemic where a mutated form of bird flu passes easily from human to human will:
- Devastate poultry farmers and their suppliers, as well as storage and transportation providers to the world poultry market.
- Cripple the world economy, with hospitals overflowing with patients too ill or too scared to come into work.
- Block the delivery of medicines for all diseases since 80% of all medicines use at least some ingredients manufactured offshore.
And The Winners Are...
Tamiflu is an antiviral drug which many countries are stockpiling to defend against an outbreak of bird flu. Sales are up 37% and could reach US$1 billion this year. While not a vaccine, Tamiflu prevents the bird flu virus from spreading through the human body. Investors might look at Gilead Sciences (GILD: NYSE) which receives royalties for Tamiflu sales from Swiss drug maker Roche.
Another big winner from the avian flu scare is international exporter M.E. Heuck Co. from Ohio. The company is introducing disposable "Avian Flu Poultry Timers" in Asia and Europe, allowing consumers to take comfort from the fact that cooking chicken to an internal temperature of 170 to 180 degrees Farenheit will kill any virus.
In England, sales of Heuck's disposable pop-up timers have soared to over 1 million up from just 10,000 last year. The senior vice-president of Heuck rationalizes that the avian flu sales pitch is "just to call attention to the fact" that cooking to the proper temperature "would kill the virus if it was there".
